By Rahul Jeyanthan
Sri Lanka take on Australia in a crucial Super 12s clash today at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium. With both teams coming off wins in their first round matches today’s match will likely have a massive bearing on which team proceeds furthest in the tournament. Here is a look at a few interesting trends to keep in mind going into tomorrow’s match.
Win the toss and bowl first
The Super Twelves stage so far has shown that fielding first is the way to go with only one team having won a match batting first opposed to 8th fielding first. Taking into consideration that this is a night game and looking at the previous India vs Pakistan match which was played at the same venue where dew played a big role in the second innings the toss is likely to be a crucial factor.
Is Pace the way to go?
Out of all the venues on show in the T20 World Cup, Dubai might well be the most pacer-friendly. Going back to the 2021 IPL, pacers took twice as many wickets as spinners at the venue taking their scalps every 19 balls compared to every 25.5 for the spinners. This is especially true when it came to the powerplay with spinners only taking 2 wickets in the entire tournament in that stage, however the performance of Moeen Ali against the West Indies offers Mahesh Theekshana some hope. Even in the middle overs pacers have proved to be slightly more effective at taking wickets and that’s an area where Lahiru Kumara could come into play. However, that is not to say spin is redundant given Adil Rashid’s performance in the West Indies vs England match as well as a rather low economy rate for spinners in the IPL, barely going at 7 runs per over. Dubai is also a venue where both good batting and bowling at the death is likely to come into focus with teams going at over 9.5 Runs per over in the death during the IPL and it will be up to the likes of Dushmantha Chameera to step up in that area.
Intriguing matchups
One of the more intriguing factors going into the match is the bad form of David Warner and while a natural inclination might be to go with spin of Mahesh Theekshana to target him early it might not be wise to do so as Warner has been imperious against spin in the powerplay, getting out only once in the last 3 years while going at a strike rate of over 150. Even during his bad run of form it was pace that was causing him more trouble at the start of the innings. However, it might not be the worst idea to try to target Finch with spin from the very start with him having shown a tendency to struggle against spin from the very start of the innings, especially against leg spin losing his wicket to leg spin 17 times in the 37 innings he has faced that discipline during the last 3 years. Another imperative factor is going to be curtailing Glenn Maxwell who has been a frequent tormentor of Sri Lanka and while it is hard to find an obvious weak spot, he is slightly more susceptible to spin especially in the case of T20Is.
When it comes to the batting Sri Lanka should be extra careful about the duo of Hazlewood and Starc who have been outstanding in the powerplay overs combining a low economy rate with wicket taking ability. In the middle overs handling the leg spin of Adam Zampa is going to be crucial for any chance of success given that Sri Lanka have struggled quite badly against leggies in the last 3 years, averaging less than 20 while scoring at less than 7 runs per over. Hopefully the likes of Bhanuka Rajapaksha and Charith Asalanka will be there to combat this threat with Zampa’s figures against left handers considerably worse than his figures against right handers and with both the mentioned Sri Lankan batsmen having impressive records against legspin (albeit in limited sample space). As mentioned before quick scoring at the death is likely to be a crucial factor as well and that’s where the likes of Avishka Fernando, Dasun Shanaka and Chamika Karunaratne are likely to be key especially against the Pat Cummins who has gone at an economy of around 9.5 against right handers at the death against a figure of 6.5 vs left handers. (For the curious folk out there Starc has a better record against right handers but the disparity isn’t as huge as it is in the case of Cummins)
So that was a look at some interesting stats and trends that may or may not appear in the real match. Hopefully Team Sri Lanka performs to their very best today in the match and I for one will certainly be cheering them on all the way.
Update: In the likely scenario that Mitchell Starc misses tomorrow’s match and considering the conditions in Dubai it is likely he will be replaced by Kane Richardson giving Sri Lanka a better match up at the start of the innings with neither Richardson nor Cummins being as effective as Starc in the powerplay. Richardson actually has a comparable economy to Starc at the death sans the wicket taking ability. There is also an outside chance that Ashton Agar could come in if Australia think’s the conditions will aid the spinners
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